Yesterday, the International Monetary Fund announced its readiness to provide Ukraine with a new credit line under the expanded program. As previously reported, voiced the amount of funding - $ 17.5 billion, the credit period - 4 years. The main risks that accompany this cooperation between Ukraine and the IMF, are associated with the inefficient use of resources - some of which can be used to pay down debt, including loan to Russia. Also on IMF funds will replenish foreign exchange reserves of power and try to support the country's banking system. Thus, the first tranche will "zalatyvaniyu holes" in the Ukrainian economy.
Christine Lagarde
Photo GettyImages / fotobank.ua
"I am pleased to announce that the Board of Directors today approved a program for IMF EFF at $ 17.5 billion with Ukraine," - said yesterday, managing director of F Foundation, Christine Lagarde. The amount has been agreed upon in the middle of February 2015 , during the visit of the IMF mission.
Recall, the program of cooperation between Ukraine and the IMF revised since the fall . As previously reported by Forbes, devaluation of the hryvnia and the change in macroeconomic led to the fact that without a revision of the key conditions to continue to cooperate with financial donor would be impossible. President of the IG "Univer" Taras Kozak noted that Ukraine has traditionally participated in the program stand-by. "This means that the funds are primarily allocated to the National Bank, and sometimes only a small fraction of their available budget. Loans quite short, 2-3 years - and has already begun the repayment of these funds. Now we have signed EFF - a long-term program, which provides loans to both budget and
The bulk of the funds to be received by the Ministry of Finance, will go to pay off foreign debt
NBU reserves. And that's why there was a delay - because we moved from the stand-by at the EFF.And we need right now is massive, substantial long-term care, "- said Kozak.
In the process of agreeing on a program main points of contention arose between the government and the National Bank of Ukraine. In general, according to Forbes, questions related to the NBU to recapitalize banks and monetary policy have been criticized by the negotiators with the IMF, including due to questions about the banks associated with the first persons of the country, as well as due to the tightening of questions on the bank " Delta '. In addition, the controversial point was the government's position on "Naftogaz" - the deficit will be eliminated by 2016.
Note that the interaction program called the IMF and Ukraine, including, "an ambitious economic program." Back in October 2014 MIT professor Andrei Kirilenko told Forbes, that the reform of "Naftogaz" is one of the main conditions for the effective development of the Ukrainian economy.
Meanwhile, the financial community the basic expectations associated with a positive effect on the image-Ukraine IMF decisions. "The positive decision of the IMF program and should help provide some respite country, as well as to give a signal to other creditors, and open a window for new bilateral loans from international donors. The very expectation of positive solutions allowed, including, reduce speculative pressure on the hryvnia and give a trend to roll back on the currency, which, again, should loosen the grip of financial and economic crisis and to give more positive signals population and business, "- emphasizes investment analyst Ivan Uglyanitsa.
However, the immediate impact of the financial investments a country feel, subject to a number of conditions. Vadim Grib of companies TEKT recalls that all the money painted, because the country has accumulated a lot of debt, "Recall at least $ 3 billion debt to Russia, for the loan in December 2013. The contract stipulates that the deterioration of the situation in the Russian economy may demand early repayment. "
We are in such a state of the economy that need the money right now.I would like to obtain information about the resources of the country was information springboard that launched the process to return confidence in the banking system
"The bulk of the funds to be received by the Ministry of Finance, will go to repay foreign debt.This will lead to the fact that the National Bank of its gold reserves will not divert resources to service foreign debt. We used to have gold reserves decreased including the fact that there was a need to service the national debt. And now the gold reserves no longer need to be reduced pace because most of the funds that will go to the Ministry of Finance, it will go to payments on the national debt. And that will remain in the NBU will go to replenish the gold reserves, "- said a member of the Ukrainian Society of Financial Analysts Vitaly Shapran.
According to Vadim Grib, the IMF loan to bring positive changes in the Ukrainian economy, it is necessary to take a number of urgent measures."It is necessary to carry out the reduction of the welfare state, medical and insurance reform, education reform," Naftogaz ". The budget must balance. The population at the hands of - billions hryvnia. Need not obkladyvat middle class population and taxes, and to run the economy and develop small businesses, enabling people to earn, "- emphasizes the fungus.
Former member of the Board of the NBU Vasyl Horbal also believes that the priority for Ukraine's economy today is the return of confidence in the banking and financial system. "There are positive that the IMF decision was taken. We are in such a state of the economy that need the money right now. I admit, the Ministry of Finance is preparing for some kind of reform - says Horbal. - We would like information about obtaining resources of the country has become the information springboard that launched the process to return confidence in the banking system. " As Vadim Grib, Vasyl Horbal called a very important start lending, without which speak of effective economic development will not be easy.
Meanwhile, in the terminology of the IMF's policy of interaction between the Fund and Ukraine will be aimed at maintaining a flexible exchange rate for the stable accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, as well as - in the public administration reform. In particular - anti-corruption and judicial reform, deregulation and improve the business climate in the country.
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